85. Mario vs. Link (2002) R6
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/b/bf8d564b.jpg
Mario 37.47% 36796
Link 62.53% 61415
TOTAL VOTES 98211
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(1)Mario_vs_(2)Link_2002
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1002-tournament-final-mario-vs-link
Once upon a time, there was no LAW. With the exception of maybe GOTD1, most contests have at best 2 or 3 potential winners to choose from, and while the respective contests have their ups and downs in terms of predictability it all comes down to the same one or two entrants in the end. In 2002, that wasnt the case. The field was wide open. One cool thing about the initial leaderboards back then was that it would include next to the User and their score, what their Winner Prediction was. And unlike a later contest that would be nothing but Link/Cloud, a brief glance at the leaderboards in those days would have included a wealth of picks. Mario, Sephiroth, Snake, Link, Samus, Lara even! I remember a Ryu picker showing up even after hed already been eliminated. It truly was anyones game.
There were favorites of course, and while the Odds that were calculated by Ceej* werent strictly determined by how many people had that character winning (to quote Solarshadow: it was a weighted system that gave more importance to characters winning matches in later rounds.), it serves as a good proxy and matches up with my own personal memories of that times. Mario, Snake, Sephiroth, and Link were at the top of the predictions, with Cloud maybe a step below. Yes, this was a time when the conventional wisdom was still that Seph was more popular than Cloud. Mario was the obvious favorite, although people were certainly conscious of the potential for anti-votes as well as the belief that he was past his prime at that point, and the Mario and Snake pickers tended to be the most vocal as to their confidence in their prediction. Link was certainly considered a contender, but his support was quieter. While it might seem obvious in hindsight, there was something a bit counter intuitive about picking him. After all, Mario was the main Nintendo guy, wasnt he? Did Link have quite the same level of iconicity?
If people werent entirely convinced about Link when the contest started, they grew convinced as the contest wore on. There wasnt any big moment or match when Links dominance became clear. It was an accretion of evidence, bit by bit, and a gradual realization that this guy was special. His matches might not have been as exciting as the others, but that was exactly it. As everyone fought to get through to the next round, Link rose above everyone and dispatched his opponents with a boring ease, winning matches with 70+% rounds after other characters had fallen below 60% in their victories. Now, it must be said that, yes, Link did happen to be in the weakest division we have ever seen, and, yes, even at the time we werent entirely ignorant as to the lack of strength of his opponents when compared to the others. But still, a massive victory is a massive victory, and as Link kept pulling out one after another of these, people took notice. By the time the contests endgame had arrived, Link had emerged as the favorite to win, the only contender by this point that had not had any noticeable stumbles. By the time he faced his first serious opponent, Sephiroth in the Semis, the match was considered a done deal. People knew that Link would win it. It was only a matter of how much.
Any hope that Mario might have had going into the Finals was eliminated after Link once again dispatched an opponent with, if not quite the same margin of victory, the same relative level of ease as he had every round up to this point. Sephiroth couldnt even break 45% on Link, and Mario wasnt considered that much higher on the totem pole, if he was higher at all. And, to no ones surprise, in the final match, Link once again cruised to victory, in an easy 60/40 manner, and with a great match pic that showed the legendary status of each character. For better or worse though, this finals would prove to be Links coronation. GameFAQS was his site, and we were all just living in it.
*https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html
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Yesmar