Toy Story Mafia Topic 6: Avoiding Yet Another Yard Sale

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Board 8 » Toy Story Mafia Topic 6: Avoiding Yet Another Yard Sale
Obellisk
04/24/2024
08:50 AM
#51
UltimaterializerX posted...
I am literally confirmed town. Stop being bad.


yeah since hes not on the list either i think he was going for the people remaining that aren't confirmed town hence you not being there
(\____/)
( SBell )
#52
Post #52 was unavailable or deleted.
#53
Post #53 was unavailable or deleted.
ItzKnightz
04/24/2024
08:51 AM
#54
##vote: FD
UltimaterializerX posted...
Sbell lets do this.
Well you convinced me.
"hey, check out this web comic"
https://xkcd.com/
#55
Post #55 was unavailable or deleted.
Obellisk
04/24/2024
08:53 AM
#56
He'll argue that its stupid for scum to push a no lynch when all scum wants to do is kill town as quickly as possible, however we all know that No Lynch was never going to happen so by standing on that soapbox all he really does is give himself something to defend himself with later when he ultimately gets attacked for being scum.
(\____/)
( SBell )
#57
Post #57 was unavailable or deleted.
Obellisk
04/24/2024
08:57 AM
#58
UltimaterializerX posted...
Sbell lets do this.


Im down. its better than lynching you incorrectly in the final 3.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
08:59 AM
#59
Ulti if you get me mislynched today you will forever cement yourself as a player who cannot get it done at the end of a game.

I told you to stop telling power who to target because that makes it painfully easy for scum to make decisions. Notice how I didn't tell knightz who to target, only that he logically shouldn't target you tonight?

You're calling my "off" but I'm literally the only person who is ON.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
#60
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#61
Post #61 was unavailable or deleted.
#62
Post #62 was unavailable or deleted.
#63
Post #63 was unavailable or deleted.
ItzKnightz
04/24/2024
09:11 AM
#64
Ken - TOWN Groovy Clothing Vendor
Once per night you may choose to gift a player of your choice with groovy clothing.

That's all the details the pm tells me.
in my own words.
"hey, check out this web comic"
https://xkcd.com/
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:11 AM
#65
Because he might be bodyguard.

And if he IS bodyguard then he is the only one who will allow our confirmed Mason Cop (YOU) to survive an extra day.

But whether he IS or IS NOT bodyguard the fact that he MIGHT be means that him being alive tonight will have a side effect of allowing Knightz effect to NOT be roleblocked so someone can actually CONFIRM THAT ITS A THING THAT EXISTS.

I already EXPLAINED THIS.

1a) Ben is bodyguard. Scum either has to kill him or allow him to protect you, and you survive. Knightz gets roleblocked again so we learn nothing about him, but you live an extra day making the day of 5 easier to solve.

1b) Ben is bodyguard. Scum ROLEBLOCKS Ben so they can kill you. Knightz is NOT roleblocked, this will allow someone to receive his damn clothes and push Knightz from the "probably town" to "definitely" town pile.

2) Ben is NOT bodyguard, he's scum. See 1b. Scum has to PRETEND to roleblock him so they can kill you. In this scenario Knightz is not roleblocked so again someone will be able to confirm to have received his groovy duds.

I already SAID all this and it is the logical truth of the situation.

The other thing to consider is Ben's play with Lea. We know scum has at MOST 2 people alive. If Ben is scum then Lea is 100% town. There is a chance that both are town, but there is a 0% chance that we don't have a bodyguard OR a bulletproof. So does a SCUM ben pull the "bulletproof counter" card to trade 1 for 1 with town BP Lea? I'd say probably not, which is something today that makes him more likely to be town.

And YEAH, that would mean he's also an idiot who decided not to use his bodyguard ability at any point, but there's been a lot of "idiot" going around so that's something I have to assume is possible.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:12 AM
#66
Do you need me to explain why YOU are a bad lynch as well? Or can you figure that one out?
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:12 AM
#67
Oh, and there is an unlisted scenario 0 which we hope for but cannot count on in which the person we lynch (Death or Sbell) is the roleblocker. In which case not only do you survive a night but Knightz gets to distribute his swanky threads.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
ItzKnightz
04/24/2024
09:15 AM
#68
Forceful_Dragon posted...
Oh, and there is an unlisted scenario 0 which we hope for but cannot count on in which the person we lynch (Death or Sbell) is the roleblocker. In which case not only do you survive a night but Knightz gets to distribute his swanky threads.
I like this scenario.
"hey, check out this web comic"
https://xkcd.com/
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:16 AM
#69
ItzKnightz posted...
I like this scenario.

so do I, but we have to assume that the roleblocker survives and plan accordingly. But it would be great for us if they did not.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
#70
Post #70 was unavailable or deleted.
#71
Post #71 was unavailable or deleted.
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:21 AM
#72
not a single scenario where they just kill Knightz.
(\____/)
( SBell )
wallmasterz
04/24/2024
09:25 AM
#73
Updated Votals:

FD (2) - Sbell, (Ulti), Knightz
Death (1) - (Lea), (Ulti), (Knightz), FD
Knightz (1) - (Ulti), (Ulti), Ulti
Sbell (1) - (Lea), (Knightz), (Ulti), Lea
Ben (0) - (Ulti)
Lea (0) - (Ulti), (Ben), (Knightz), (Ulti), (Ulti), (Knightz)

Deadline is in 11.5 hours.
I need to update my signature.
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:26 AM
#74
Obellisk posted...
not a single scenario where they just kill Knightz.

That allows both the Mason Cop *AND* the claimed Bodyguard to survive an extra night? Yes please!

Because then they would be confirming knightz FOR us and allowing the confirmed Ulti through to the next day while simultaneously removing the guy that ulti keeps trying to mislynch.

I guess we could call that scenario 3 and title it "if the scum are idiots they might do this incredibly stupid thing".
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:27 AM
#75
UltimaterializerX posted...
Just lynch the blocker today with me.

IM TRYING TO FFS
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:29 AM
#76
kill ulti, confirm knightz, leave ben as a mystery
kill ben, leave confirmed ulti, leave knightz as a mystery
kill knightz, leave ulti confirmed, leave ben a mystery.

All literally the same thing, you dolt.

(\____/)
( SBell )
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:30 AM
#77
why is the smartest play for scum to Kill 1 confirmed Town and Create another? Seems like a pretty stupid thing for scum to do.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:31 AM
#78
Stay the course.

Lynch FD
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:32 AM
#79
Obellisk posted...
kill ulti, confirm knightz, leave ben as a mystery
kill ben, leave confirmed ulti, leave knightz as a mystery
kill knightz, leave ulti confirmed, leave ben a mystery.

All literally the same thing, you dolt.

not the same thing because it gives us TWO chances to lynch the roleblocker rather than 1 and a dead roleblocker means Ulti CAN NOT be killed the following night because the scum would either have to KILL BEN FIRST thus confirming him for us or shoot someone else and allow CONFIRMED Ulti into the final 3.

Scum wants to remove hard confirmed roles, and putting them in a scenario where they have to choose NOT to shoot ulti to keep Ben ambiguous is a good thing.

Granted I have no confidence in Ulti's ability to solve if he is allowed into the final 3, but hopefully we just lynch scum correctly BEFORE that point, which is something we might do regardless of the night action decision trees. Considering the possible night events is just a way to give us better odds in situations where we don't lynch scum.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
#80
Post #80 was unavailable or deleted.
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:34 AM
#81
Obellisk posted...
why is the smartest play for scum to Kill 1 confirmed Town and Create another? Seems like a pretty stupid thing for scum to do.

Because they actually have no choice? Also because, for all his earnestness, Knightz is NOT a good mafia player (yet) and he is someone who scum would WANT to allow deeper into the game so he can follow them onto a game ending mislynch like a puppy who doesn't know any better.

Call it mean if you want, but at the moment at least it's true. And I'd love to see him improve and keep playing and progress in his journey as a mafia player. But right now? That's where he's at so it's another reason why I don't think scum would just target Knightz and allow the Claimed Bodyguard + Confirmed Mason Cop to both proceed.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:36 AM
#82
Forceful_Dragon posted...
Because they actually have no choice? Also because, for all his earnestness, Knightz is NOT a good mafia player (yet) and he is someone who scum would WANT to allow deeper into the game so he can follow them onto a game ending mislynch like a puppy who doesn't know any better.

Call it mean if you want, but at the moment at least it's true. And I'd love to see him improve and keep playing and progress in his journey as a mafia player. But right now? That's where he's at so it's another reason why I don't think scum would just target Knightz and allow the Claimed Bodyguard + Confirmed Mason Cop to both proceed.

then why give knightz a chance to actually give out clothing and thus confirm himself?
(\____/)
( SBell )
#83
Post #83 was unavailable or deleted.
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:37 AM
#84
i mean ive been pushing since day 1 that Ken is a badguy and he just claimed his own flavor.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:38 AM
#85
Obellisk posted...
then why give knightz a chance to actually give out clothing and thus confirm himself?

Because a definitely town Knightz is better for us than a probably town knightz?

Don't you WANT more town to be confirmed? Or are you just pissed of scum who realized that I'm the only possible mislynch you have to play for today?

If you're town you should be grateful for my attempts at solving and you should be lynching Death with me right now, so what is your actual malfunction right now, Sbell?
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:40 AM
#86
Forceful_Dragon posted...
Because a definitely town Knightz is better for us than a probably town knightz?


Right. THATS GOOD FOR TOWN

So WHY DOES SCUM do that for town?
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:43 AM
#87
Claimed and confirmed Mason Cop
Claimed, but unconfirmed Bodyguard
Claimed, but unconfirmed Groovy Clothes Vendor

We need ALL THREE of these roles to exist tonight to be guaranteed to get something out of it. You take any one of them out of the pool and we stand to learn nothing.

We lynch Knightz and he flips town? Ben is either actually roleblocked or pretends to be roleblocked and Ulti is killed. We learn nothing about Knightz for free because we lynched him. We learn nothing about Ben because we know from now-confirmed-town-knightz that a roleblocker exists so he MIGHT be telling the truth, and our 1 actually confirmed player is now dead.

Either the bodyguard is confirmed through death.
Or the clothes vendor is confirmed through action.

But you remove one of them and now the other is put in a situation where they can't be confirmed.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:43 AM
#88
Forceful_Dragon posted...
so what is your actual malfunction right now, Sbell?


my function is that you are attempting to ensure a mislynch on death today so that you can then attempt a win for scum by mislynching me the following day and that none of this Ulti/Ben/Knightz shit matters in the least. Just like the No Lynch garbage didn't matter in the least. Just like losing your shit on Ben over using his power his way didn't matter in the least.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:45 AM
#89
Obellisk posted...
Right. THATS GOOD FOR TOWN

So WHY DOES SCUM do that for town?

BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CHOICE. THEY ACTUALLY HAVE NO CHOICE.

They either have to let Knightz act or they have to let Ben act. Ben might be lying, but the only way for Ulti to die is if Ben is roleblocked or if ben PRETENDS he's roleblocked. So either ULTI SURVIVES which is a GOOD THING, or KNIGHTZ DOESN'T GET ROLEBLOCKED>

HOW THE HELL DO YOU STILL NOT UNDERSTAND I'VE EXPLAINED IT THREE TIMES NOW
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:47 AM
#90
Obellisk posted...
my function is that you are attempting to ensure a mislynch on death today so that you can then attempt a win for scum by mislynching me the following day and that none of this Ulti/Ben/Knightz shit matters in the least. Just like the No Lynch garbage didn't matter in the least. Just like losing your shit on Ben over using his power his way didn't matter in the least.

Oh, so you KNOW death is town now?

And you KNOW there are 2 scum remaining?

Screw it, you are now more likely scum in my eyes than Death based upon THIS post.

##Unvote: Death
##Vote: SBell

~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:48 AM
#91
>_>

Fd you're a fool if you are going to revert to "hes speakign in absolutes" arguments.

im going back to work.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:51 AM
#92
You just said I'm trying to end the game with 2 consecutive mislynches. That ONLY works if there are 2 scum left.

Meanwhile I'm constantly considering the implications of what it means if there are 1 or 2 scum remaining. I'm leaning 1, but if there are 2 then we stand to learn a bit from that as well.

The fact that you said this:

Obellisk posted...
we are down to FD or Death or FD and Death.

And are UNWILLING to vote Death with me?

Really concerning.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:54 AM
#93
The main takeaway from "2 scum remaining" is that it means both Ben and Lea should be telling the truth. I would be much more inclined to believe we have both a bodyguard and a bulletproof if the scenario was 4+1 vs 10.

If there is only 1 scum left then it might be one of them, but the fact is there is a chance they are both telling the truth even IF there is only 1 scum left. Which means they can keep which gives us the most possible opportunities for ben to do his job and die at night, removing ambiguity.

That is the primary reason why we should not be lynching from their pool right now.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:55 AM
#94
i will extend the olive branch and turn to death.

I'm trying to make sense of this game and I have very little trust for someone as abbrasive and angry as you have been seemingly all game, especially after Scum was given a hefty reason to be such a way thanks to Corrik.

I think and have said it already that there is a great chance we are dealing with 2 scums left and not 1. I am merely speaking out loud as i type my responses to you. this could very well be lynch and lose and if it is and YOU are scum you are doing everything you can to ensure you aren't lynched. And in the above scenario I am pushing that that is the case.

That doens't mean i've thrown all other scenarios in the garbage.

But if we lynch death and death is town I know you are going to spend the final day IF THERE IS ONE trying to lynch me, and like you love to say, I know I am town.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:58 AM
#95
FD, if its 3 (or 4) + 1 + Town DayVig Shot, and the only protection is a single Bodyguard then this game is fucked.
Add the BP and at least Town has two opportunities to save themselves, albeit low% ones.

I can't find any reason to distrust either Lea or Bens claims.
(\____/)
( SBell )
Obellisk
04/24/2024
09:58 AM
#96
Wait what day is it? Does Scum even have a night kill tongiht?
(\____/)
( SBell )
htaeD
04/24/2024
09:59 AM
#97
I dont know whether scum has 2 or 1 left, the possibility is that one of the protection claims is lying to make us think scum has 2 members left. But I dont know what advantage that gives scum.

Either way I dont think scum ever kills Knightz while the RB lives. I also debated whether its worth it to direct Bens power, if he has it.
If we do, we can at least force scum to settle the debate on Knightz or Ben.
Violet IGN: Malta, Sword IGN: Pandora
Home: Pandorian/JBURSQAVTAGA
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
09:59 AM
#98
Obellisk posted...
angry as you have been seemingly all game, especially after Scum was given a hefty reason to be such a way thanks to Corrik.

I'm angry because we THREW AWAY the advantage he gave us day 1 by forcing Lopen to claim.

I was trying to PRESERVE the advantage, something I would NOT have been arguing for if I was scum.

But again, ya'll were too busy trying to hit back to back smash winners that you made an unforced error. So yeah, it ticks me off that I explained WHY it would be a bad idea to force anyone to claim, you did it anyways, and exactly what I said might happen, happened.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
htaeD
04/24/2024
10:00 AM
#99
Obellisk posted...
Wait what day is it? Does Scum even have a night kill tongiht?

Presumably this does not matter anymore, since they killed Corrik on an odd night
Violet IGN: Malta, Sword IGN: Pandora
Home: Pandorian/JBURSQAVTAGA
Forceful_Dragon
04/24/2024
10:01 AM
#100
Obellisk posted...
FD, if its 3 (or 4) + 1 + Town DayVig Shot, and the only protection is a single Bodyguard then this game is fucked.
Add the BP and at least Town has two opportunities to save themselves, albeit low% ones.

I can't find any reason to distrust either Lea or Bens claims.

Right, which is why "2 scum remaining" for me means BOTH you and death are scum.

And "1 scum remaining" means it's most likely one of you, with much smaller % chances of it being someone else.

My preference ALL DAY has been Death before you, but you just spent the past hour incorrectly poking holes in my logic which is something I wouldn't expect you to do as town.
~C~ FD
http://i.imgur.com/dGDfxaw.png
Board 8 » Toy Story Mafia Topic 6: Avoiding Yet Another Yard Sale
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