Climate change target of 2C is 'dead', says renowned climate scientist

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Current Events » Climate change target of 2C is 'dead', says renowned climate scientist
The pace of global heating has been significantly underestimated, according to renowned climate scientist Prof James Hansen, who said the international 2C target is dead.

A new analysis by Hansen and colleagues concludes that both the impact of recent cuts in sun-blocking shipping pollution, which has raised temperatures, and the sensitivity of the climate to increasing fossil fuels emissions are greater than thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist

"Safe" limit of 1.5C: dead
2C limit: dead
3C limit: If humanity works together and we act quickly and the fascists with fossil fuel money have a change of heart...
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Yeah there's a reason I've been pretty blackpilled lately on climate change, folks. There was a long post a while back outlining how we've got about twenty years at best before society starts collapsing, and not much can avert it at this point.

With this looming on the horizon, suddenly the long term damage to the US doesn't seem very important anymore.
Time is a funny thing, you know? I guess in the big picture of my life, you were only a blip. But oftentimes, those "blips" make the biggest impacts.
How many decades do we have left, realistically?
If you read this signature, then that meant that I had control of what you read for 5 SECONDS!!
With this government, that goal will be killed before the end of the year.
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refmon posted...
How many decades do we have left, realistically?
How many eggs can you buy?
Above all things, never be afraid. The enemy who forces you to retreat is himself afraid of you at that very moment.
refmon posted...
How many decades do we have left, realistically?
According to a post somebody else made, we've got about 20 years.
Time is a funny thing, you know? I guess in the big picture of my life, you were only a blip. But oftentimes, those "blips" make the biggest impacts.
At this point our best hope is billionaires eventually realizing they can't make money off dead people.
And people wonder why the younger generation is depressed.
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refmon posted...
How many decades do we have left, realistically?

Don't care anymore. It's pretty clear no one will do anything to stop this. Everyone is saying Idiocracy is a documentary meanwhile I'm saying Mad Max is a documentary.
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg
I guess the reign of fascism won't last forever?
Goodness knows, the wicked's lives are lonely; goodness knows, the wicked die alone.
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Tyranthraxus posted...
Don't care anymore. It's pretty clear no one will do anything to stop this. Everyone is saying Idiocracy is a documentary meanwhile I'm saying Mad Max is a documentary.

Idiocracy and Mad Max collab was not on my bingo card
"I dreamt I was a moron."
Idiocracy was optimistic, thinking we would last 400 more years
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El Salvador will lock all the extra degrees in solitary.
i fully expect Musk and other technocrats to soon start building completely closed off, self-contained, and renewably powered bunker facilities ostensibly to do research into building livable habitats on the moon and Mars, but really it's because they know they are accelerating climate change and dooming the vast majority of human life on the planet to extinction, and they will build these shelters to weather the storm and emerge after civilization has collapsed to take global power over a more manageably sized population. with automation and literally all the world's wealth consolidated into their hands, they won't need billions of people to keep things rolling.
R.I.P. America, 1776-2024
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DoesntMatter posted...
i fully expect Musk and other technocrats to soon start building completely closed off, self-contained, and renewably powered bunker facilities ostensibly to do research into building livable habitats on the moon and Mars, but really it's because they know they are accelerating climate change and dooming the vast majority of human life on the planet to extinction, and they will build these shelters to weather the storm and emerge after civilization has collapsed to take global power over a more manageably sized population. with automation and literally all the world's wealth consolidated into their hands, they won't need billions of people to keep things rolling.
This is ultimately the plan. It's why the lower classes are increasingly being treated as entirely disposable; the less of us there are, the more available resources for them to carry out their vanity projects. When you stop supporting everyone but those near the top, suddenly "efficiency" can skyrocket.

We're in the beginning of the foundation of "network states" which are by very conception reserved exclusively for those with substantial resources. Their concept of "hyperracism" is an integral concept of the whole process because they believe that the rich are genetically superior and us lower lifeforms are a contaminate in the human gene pool; by excluding us from their plans, we will naturally die out.
Goodness knows, the wicked's lives are lonely; goodness knows, the wicked die alone.
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DoesntMatter posted...
i fully expect Musk and other technocrats to soon start building completely closed off, self-contained, and renewably powered bunker facilities ostensibly to do research into building livable habitats on the moon and Mars, but really it's because they know they are accelerating climate change and dooming the vast majority of human life on the planet to extinction, and they will build these shelters to weather the storm and emerge after civilization has collapsed to take global power over a more manageably sized population. with automation and literally all the world's wealth consolidated into their hands, they won't need billions of people to keep things rolling.
It's ironic because for decades, conservative conspiracy theorists believed that liberals were planning to wipe out most of humanity. But it turns out it's the conservatives who do it
Zikten posted...
It's ironic because for decades, conservative conspiracy theorists believed that liberals were planning to wipe out most of humanity. But it turns out it's the conservatives who do it

It's always projection.
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vigorm0rtis posted...
At this point our best hope is billionaires eventually realizing they can't make money off dead people.

They will jump on the "ditch the peasants and get to Mars" train and get themselves killed in space.
Cover your knees up if you're gonna be walkin' around everywhere.
Okay, but has Mr. Selfish and his Green Cartel ever considered that if we forcefully stopped or slowed the consumption of fossil fuels and/or hard pivoted to renewable energy sooner that would have caused an economic crisis that could have lasted years ? Would that have been worth keeping entire swaths of the planet habitable? I don't think so.

Uncomfortable future conversations about how many innocent people and wildlife will be left stranded to perish in their slowly unrecognizable surroundings are a fair price to pay to ensure that we didn't upset any 1%ers. If anything, we should be apologizing to them for not thinking ahead and carving out sections of the best land for them to build shelters. /s

vigorm0rtis posted...
At this point our best hope is billionaires eventually realizing they can't make money off dead people.
The best hope is them realizing that they're going to still be alive when it all comes crashing down and they'll have nowhere to hide.
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Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...
According to a post somebody else made, we've got about 20 years.

Somebody made a post on gamefaqs and now you're convinced the world is over in 20 years?
CE's Resident Scotsman.
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pinky0926 posted...
Somebody made a post on gamefaqs and now you're convinced the world is over in 20 years?
No, somebody quoted scientists and researchers who have been studying this for decades. Also, the world and humanity won't suddenly just end. It'll be a series of increasingly bad things that we'll be less and less likely to reverse.
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Board_hunter567 posted...
No, somebody quoted scientists and researchers who have been studying this for decades. Also, the world and humanity won't suddenly just end. It'll be a series of increasingly bad things that we'll be less and less likely to reverse.

I have a few problems with this
  1. stating that we have 20 years left before society starts collapsing as if a statement of simple fact is a bold and fantastic claim to make, especially without a source. Just a reference to a post he read some time. And it may well be true, but my issue is passing it off as fact as if to say, "trust me bro". Most climate scientist estimations are not even that harsh, and societal collapse is a broader issue anyway.
  2. That leads me onto my next point. The article quoted in this topic isn't saying that science confirms that 2C is dead. It's saying that one scientist and team think so.
Climate scientist Dr Zeke Hausfather, who was not part of the study, said it was a useful contribution. Its important to emphasise that both of these issues [pollution cuts] and climate sensitivity are areas of deep scientific uncertainty, he said.
While Hansen et al are on the high end of available estimates, we cannot say with any confidence that they are wrong, rather that they just represent something closer to a worst-case outcome.
Both approaches are useful and often complementary, said Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasas Goddard Institute for Space Studies. But I think in this case, Hansens approach is too simple and doesnt factor in changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variability.

3.In fact if you read the rest of the article, Hansen's view is not the consensus, just another view that is considered on the high end of estimates.

To be clear, I don't wish to cast doubt on climate science. My point is that you need to be accurate with what you say, otherwise it just opens up space for people to call it lies. And it would be a lie to frame this as consensus when it is clearly not. And even in the context of this article - which is not climate science, but a journalistic piece by the guardian - the actual truth and the regular estimates are easily bad enough and worth calling a critical global emergency enough as it is.
CE's Resident Scotsman.
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pinky0926 posted...
Somebody made a post on gamefaqs and now you're convinced the world is over in 20 years?

That is too generous. This is our last decade alive with how fast everything is falling apart. Either its climate change, worldwide fascist dictatorship, or a nuclear wasteland is our futures on what'll cause the pure extinction of humanity.
"Do you like Scary movies?"
pinky0926 posted...
I have a few problems with this
1. stating that we have 20 years left before society starts collapsing as if a statement of simple fact is a bold and fantastic claim to make, especially without a source. Just a reference to a post he read some time. And it may well be true, but my issue is passing it off as fact as if to say, "trust me bro". Most climate scientist estimations are not even that harsh, and societal collapse is a broader issue anyway.
2. That leads me onto my next point. The article quoted in this topic isn't saying that science confirms that 2C is dead. It's saying that one scientist and team think so.

3.In fact if you read the rest of the article, Hansen's view is not the consensus, just another view that is considered on the high end of estimates.

To be clear, I don't wish to cast doubt on climate science. My point is that you need to be accurate with what you say, otherwise it just opens up space for people to call it lies. And it would be a lie to frame this as consensus when it is clearly not. And even in the context of this article - which is not climate science, but a journalistic piece by the guardian - the actual truth and the regular estimates are easily bad enough and worth calling a critical global emergency enough as it is.
1) Its not a bold and fantastic claim because climate scientists have been saying this is the trajectory for decades and weve done nothing to limit or prevent it. Broader issues are still issues, and importantly, bigger issues than narrow issues.

2) and when we do nothing to limit or prevent climate damage still, next it will be another team and then another and then even more teams saying it

3) you say high end of estimates but weve consistently blown climate scientists estimates out and exceeded them, so realistically this estimate will be met
Rika_Furude posted...
1) Its not a bold and fantastic claim because climate scientists have been saying this is the trajectory for decades and weve done nothing to limit or prevent it. Broader issues are still issues, and importantly, bigger issues than narrow issues.

2) and when we do nothing to limit or prevent climate damage still, next it will be another team and then another and then even more teams saying it

3) you say high end of estimates but weve consistently blown climate scientists estimates out and exceeded them, so realistically this estimate will be met
Furthermore, we are now in a "drill baby drill" phase and what we did do to protect the climate is actively being scrapped. Things can only accelerate.
Goodness knows, the wicked's lives are lonely; goodness knows, the wicked die alone.
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thekosmicfool posted...
They will jump on the "ditch the peasants and get to Mars" train and get themselves killed in space.
Christ I hope they're stupid enough to resort to being bubble people on Mars, I can imagine few existences more bleak.
Time is a funny thing, you know? I guess in the big picture of my life, you were only a blip. But oftentimes, those "blips" make the biggest impacts.
thekosmicfool posted...
They will jump on the "ditch the peasants and get to Mars" train and get themselves killed in space.
Mars is cold as hell. And its airless we are centuries from even settling it.
I was born when she kissed me. I died when she left me. I lived a few weeks while she loved me-
We were pretty well fucked decades ago no matter who was going to be in office. There were so many things that were absolutely necessary to do but would be political suicide to do anything about it. There was no way they were going to do anything about stuff like the Amazon deforestation or water usage in California and the midwest because it would have raised beef and dairy prices. We just saw how egg prices decided an election.
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DoesntMatter posted...
i fully expect Musk and other technocrats to soon start building completely closed off, self-contained, and renewably powered bunker facilities ostensibly to do research into building livable habitats on the moon and Mars, but really it's because they know they are accelerating climate change and dooming the vast majority of human life on the planet to extinction, and they will build these shelters to weather the storm and emerge after civilization has collapsed to take global power over a more manageably sized population. with automation and literally all the world's wealth consolidated into their hands, they won't need billions of people to keep things rolling.
just gonna leave this here....

https://www.vice.com/en/article/billionaires-are-building-luxury-bunkers-to-escape-doomsday/
R.I.P. America, 1776-2024
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DoesntMatter posted...
just gonna leave this here....

https://www.vice.com/en/article/billionaires-are-building-luxury-bunkers-to-escape-doomsday/

lol yeah they've been doing that for years already.

People like Zuckerberg and Oprah are buying up a ton of land in Hawaii to build huge complexes there. Now, I think Hawaii is probably the worst place possible to do something like this, but I guess they think they'll be safe from volcanoes and floods underground?
I could see you, but I couldn't hear you You were holding your hat in the breeze Turning away from me In this moment you were stolen...
DoesntMatter posted...
i fully expect Musk and other technocrats to soon start building completely closed off, self-contained, and renewably powered bunker facilities ostensibly to do research into building livable habitats on the moon and Mars, but really it's because they know they are accelerating climate change and dooming the vast majority of human life on the planet to extinction, and they will build these shelters to weather the storm and emerge after civilization has collapsed to take global power over a more manageably sized population. with automation and literally all the world's wealth consolidated into their hands, they won't need billions of people to keep things rolling.
They've already done this lol
^ Hey now that's completely unfair!
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Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...
Yeah there's a reason I've been pretty blackpilled lately on climate change, folks. There was a long post a while back outlining how we've got about twenty years at best before society starts collapsing, and not much can avert it at this point.
If I believed that Id probably be popping those black pills also.
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thronedfire2 posted...
lol yeah they've been doing that for years already.

People like Zuckerberg and Oprah are buying up a ton of land in Hawaii to build huge complexes there. Now, I think Hawaii is probably the worst place possible to do something like this, but I guess they think they'll be safe from volcanoes and floods underground?
It was happening in New Zealand as well, and I have no idea why.

Like, I'm not sure why New Zealand specifically ended up being the target, not as a judgment against New Zealand.

Seems like you'd want a slightly larger island.
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If we are all gonna die anyway, I hope Elon Musk is still alive when the end comes so he suffers too. The last thing I want is him living out a natural lifespan in a fancy bunker. I want him having that final panicked realization that he fucked himself and that he can't save himself like he thought
GrandConjuraton posted...
Their concept of "hyperracism" is an integral concept of the whole process because they believe that the rich are genetically superior and us lower lifeforms are a contaminate in the human gene pool; by excluding us from their plans, we will naturally die out.

You mention Nick Land's concept of hyper-racism.

I'll add that the point about Nick Land's and Curtis Yarvin's adherents, whom Elon Musk is a part of, is that they believe humanity is doomed and that environmentalism is a lost cause. Instead, they want to sacrifice the planet and the majority of humanity so that resources can be best served for the top echelon of humanity (wealthy white tech bro billionaires). They plan to burn tons of fossil fuel turning the Earth into Venus just so they can run their power guzzling AI that will power their techtopia.
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DrizztLink posted...
It was happening in New Zealand as well, and I have no idea why.

Like, I'm not sure why New Zealand specifically ended up being the target, not as a judgment against New Zealand.

Seems like you'd want a slightly larger island.

It's not that small, it's about as big as the entire northeast US including NY and Pennsylvania. Plus it's pretty close to Australia and relatively close to SE Asia.

and also it's beautiful land that they probably felt entitled to
I could see you, but I couldn't hear you You were holding your hat in the breeze Turning away from me In this moment you were stolen...
Zikten posted...
If we are all gonna die anyway, I hope Elon Musk is still alive when the end comes so he suffers too. The last thing I want is him living out a natural lifespan in a fancy bunker. I want him having that final panicked realization that he fucked himself and that he can't save himself like he thought

He will be long dead before any noticable consequences happen. It's like throwing the entire world out of a plane without parachutes. Some will die before they hit the bottom and know only the fun free fall for the rest of their lives.

The generations to come are fucked. We're basically past the point of no return so it doesn't matter what anyone else does anymore.

It's a shame. This planet used to be so beautiful.
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg
The MSM going from talking about 1.5C and the Paris Agreement every second whenever climate change is in the news to suddenly avoiding the topic entirely this last year was like a switch had been flipped.

It's the clearest sign we're fucked and faster than expected.

Tyranthraxus posted...
He will be long dead before any noticable consequences happen.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1527f4b4.jpg

Musk might very well live another forty-plus years, extinction is assured by sixty years. If one takes any solace it is that the younger billionaires are going to suffer before the end in their coffins of steel and iron, they will die knowing precisely how badly they fucked up (for they had the wealth and time to become the emperors of renewable energy and instead chose to prop up a system that would ensure the death of their own empire) and indulging in miserable self-pity every step of the way.

A fitting end for their ilk.

If anything they are going to have the worse death. We will all likely go quickly once the tipping point is reached, they will cling on in ever-increasing misery and suffering. They're welcome to it.
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M1Astray posted...
Musk might very well live another forty-plus years, extinction is assured by sixty years

I think you're being way too aggressive here. Large parts of the world unhabitable in 60 years, sure. Full human extinction? That's gonna take a lot longer.
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
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Tyranthraxus posted...
He will be long dead before any noticable consequences happen. It's like throwing the entire world out of a plane without parachutes. Some will die before they hit the bottom and know only the fun free fall for the rest of their lives.

The generations to come are fucked. We're basically past the point of no return so it doesn't matter what anyone else does anymore.

It's a shame. This planet used to be so beautiful.

Noticeable consequences are going to happen in the next decade or two when entire countries and geographic regions don't have access to clean drinking water. It's going to cause a bigger refugee crisis than any war the world has seen.
I could see you, but I couldn't hear you You were holding your hat in the breeze Turning away from me In this moment you were stolen...
thronedfire2 posted...
Noticeable consequences are going to happen in the next decade or two when entire countries and geographic regions don't have access to clean drinking water. It's going to cause a bigger refugee crisis than any war the world has seen.
Refugee crises don't affect billionaires.
It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha."
https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg
Hey at least some rich guys got to buy ten yachts
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Tyranthraxus posted...
I think you're being way too aggressive here. Large parts of the world unhabitable in 60 years, sure. Full human extinction? That's gonna take a lot longer.
Almost the entire planet will become uninhabitable for humans once we cross the 4.0C mark and we're on track to hit that by 2050 at the latest.

The fun part however is it isn't stopping there. Take every tipping point and throw them in and you're looking at 6.0C+ by the time they've fed into the system (probably 5.0C+ by 2060). There will not be a single corner of the planet that's livable by then.

Or rather won't be livable without industrialization. Unfortunately what these billionares have failed to realize is that once civilization collapses industrliazation goes out the window and with it every single thing they require to survive what's coming. Modern medicine? Bye to that and hope they enjoy the flu becoming a deadly affair again. Repairs for their high-tech bunker? Well, better pray you won't need any of the core components like chips or conductors replacing in your lifetime because that's gone too.

That's not even touching on natural disasters that will be abundant and hitting even the "nice" parts of the globe. Doesn't matter how good your bunker is if the mother of all earthquakes comes along.

Hanson and co paint a bleak picture but the reality is that's still likely the conservative estimation of what's coming.

The irony however is that these billionaires can survive what's coming. But it'd take protecting enough of the peasants and creating vast superstructures like robust greenhouses once the "breadbaskets" stop working to make work. It's always trickle up and they will suffer from their own hubris for believing they're exceptional rather than lucky to be born into wealth.
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"While Hansen et al are on the high end of available estimates, we cannot say with any confidence that they are wrong, rather that they just represent something closer to a worst-case outcome.

Alarming, but context is important here. I have to believe we still have a chance. Not in the least, because my job revolves around decarbonising industry and if we don't then that makes what I do meaningless lol
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Current Events » Climate change target of 2C is 'dead', says renowned climate scientist