Syrian rebels have started a surprise offensive near Aleppo

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Current Events » Syrian rebels have started a surprise offensive near Aleppo
https://www.newarab.com/news/syrian-rebels-launch-shock-offensive-against-regime-northwest

In a shock offensive they call "Operation Deterring Aggression", opposition forces have overrun several positions of pro-Assad and Russian forces including a major regimental headquarters and are roughly 6 km from the outskirts of Aleppo.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/27-november-12-northern-syria-within-the-framework-of-the
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/27-november-15-colonel-hassan-abdulghaour-revolutionaries
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What are the odds of them gaddafying Assad?
Sigs are rather pointless, except if it's to showcase animation and images.
This just started in the last few hours so I don't think anyone knows that yet. Right now I think their main aim is to get back into Aleppo, or at least get closer.
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Thompson posted...
What are the odds of them gaddafying Assad?

Not high, but it depends on how forceful Turkey and the US want to be on the issue, I guess.
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https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1861805415593349217

The rebels are now apparently just 3 km, or a little under 2 miles from Aleppo and closing fast. Seems like they might actually be on a thunder run to the city.
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Im ignorant
Are the rebels the good guys or the bad guys here? Or is everyone a bad guy?
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Jiek_Fafn posted...
Im ignorant
Are the rebels the good guys or the bad guys here? Or is everyone a bad guy?

They're anti Assad who is backed by Russia
They're also anti Isis

You decide.
we talking a revolution or ISIS 2.0?
Kremlin delenda est
Jiek_Fafn posted...
Im ignorant
Are the rebels the good guys or the bad guys here? Or is everyone a bad guy?
Most of the players in the Syrian civil war have generally been bad guys except for the Kurds and their allies, who defeated ISIS.

From the article, these rebels aren't good guys (but neither is the Syrian regime): "Northwestern Syria is the last area of the country to be controlled by anti-Assad rebels and is dominated by the hardline Islamist Hayaat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group."

HTS evolved from Al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, Al-Nusrah.
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MrResetti posted...
They're anti Assad who is backed by Russia
They're also anti Isis

You decide.
Tbf that doesn't necessarily mean they are good just because they are fighting terrible people themselves.
Let's make biscuits!
i mean assad and russia are terrorists so
Now i feel less bad about not understanding the situation. Thanks for educating me
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They're not exactly good people from what I'm reading about them. They might actually be more authoritarian than the Assad regime, but as long as they don't somehow take over the government (which would be a tall order for a group that only holds power in the Idlib Governate, the province to the west of Aleppo) they can still be useful.

There's a chance that they could destabilize the situation enough where more moderate elements of the opposition forces start taking action as well to try to prevent extremists from seizing power.
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I feel like Im the only person still pissed off about the Kurds
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Do they have the secret Death Star plans, or is this more like the rebels in Les Miserables ?
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Chev427BB posted...
They're not exactly good people from what I'm reading about them. They might actually be more authoritarian than the Assad regime, but as long as they don't somehow take over the government (which would be a tall order for a group that only holds power in the Idlib Governate, the province to the west of Aleppo) they can still be useful.

There's a chance that they could destabilize the situation enough where more moderate elements of the opposition forces start taking action as well to try to prevent extremists from seizing power.
They're basically affiliates of Al-Qaeda. The only use they really had was to act as a thorn in the side of ISIS when they held territory.

Alteres posted...
I feel like Im the only person still pissed off about the Kurds
Same here. Supplied the ground troops and did the heavy lifting to defeat ISIS and then the US (specifically Trump) takes all the credit/lets Turkey bomb them.
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Alteres posted...
I feel like Im the only person still pissed off about the Kurds

Yep, let the SDF do all the work and then fuck them over as soon as they are of little use to the US
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Pow_Pow_Punishment posted...
Most of the players in the Syrian civil war have generally been bad guys except for the Kurds and their allies
Which certainly takes the US out of consideration.
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DrizztLink posted...
Which certainly takes the US out of consideration.
I really appreciate this comment (I'm Persian with Kurdish family), but the US did help the Kurds a great deal when nobody else did while yes, backstabbing them. I remember when the US first attacked ISIS with Obama bombing the militants who had those poor Yezidis surrounded on Mt. Sinjar, no doubt averting a massacre there. Hard to put the US in the same moral category in this conflict as Al-Nusrah, ISIS, and Bashar Assad.
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The Kurds deserve an independent Kurdistan, and it's simply unconscionable to argue otherwise.
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UnholyMudcrab posted...
The Kurds deserve an independent Kurdistan, and it's simply unconscionable to argue otherwise.

Of course. But literally no nation in the region wants that. So it won't happen.
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Asshead deserves death, but I fear Syria will just be another Iraq and Libya afterwards should that occur. Unless the Kurds just come from behind these rebels and take over.
https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1862047280452206627

Apparently the frontline west of Aleppo has collapsed and organized defense of the line has ended. Another 12 settlements occupied by pro-Assad forces have been overrun by the rebels, who are allegedly being supported by Turkey.

Here's a simple infographic I found on twitter that helps you easily understand the Syrian Civil War and the factions involved:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/7/749750e7.jpg

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Hinakuluiau posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f65b9831.jpg
Beat me to it
Pow_Pow_Punishment posted...
They're basically affiliates of Al-Qaeda.


both equally bad :(. rebels seem worse imo.
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it depends which rebels. There are pro-Democracy forces, but by and large they're a very eclectic coalition.

Assad remains one of the most evil people of the century, though.
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Yeah, it's literally anyone and everyone who hates the Assad regime and the Russians stationed there (and ISIS who still have a scattered presence in the south) from Kurds and moderates to the most extreme terror cells you can think of.
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Chev427BB posted...
Yeah, it's literally anyone and everyone who hates the Assad regime and the Russians stationed there (and ISIS who still have a scattered presence in the south) from Kurds and moderates to the most extreme terror cells you can think of.

And there are also anti-government zones and regions that likewise differ in ideology, except absolutely despising Assad and the Iranian affiliated allied forces. Like when Israel was attacking Hezbollah, they were outright celebrating after Hezbollah had literally starved several regions
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
The rebels have taken Mansoura and are now just outside of Aleppo. This has been a complete rout of the pro-Assad forces west of the city and it doesn't appear to be slowing down.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1862165106869571843

Also, Visegrad24 is a far right news organization so I'm very careful about using them as a source, but their reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war has always been solid.
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Chev427BB posted...


Also, Visegrad24 is a far right news organization so I'm very careful about using them as a source, but their reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war has always been so

I'm wondering how much of this is from Hezbollah and Russia's armies being so badly damaged.
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
That must have something to do with it. It's been years since the last major offensive, and this is major

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/13d374de.jpg

Each of those flags is a settlement the rebels have secured in the last 24 hours
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Chev427BB posted...
That must have something to do with it. It's been years since the last major offensive, and this is major

https://i.gyazo.com/adfdafdfef768e458f5e2d166cd40f9c.png

Each of those flags is a settlement the rebels have secured in the last 24 hours

Yeah, Hezbollah losing so much of its army and entire command stucture doesn't feel coincidental to this
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
Also, the Turks are doing Turkish things and are targeting the Kurds in northern Syria, because of course they are. They can't handle the fact that there are Kurds right on their border.

The Kurds (or the more moderate groups in the coalition) are pretty much the only hope for a moderate, democratic Syria. If any of these extremist groups in the coalition take power nothing is going to change (at least for the better) in Syria, and they'll most likely have Turkish backing so it won't be good for the Kurds.
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Is this an actual thing? I'm seeing zero on it on my national news site.
https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1862076456462868901

It's like 2015 all over again when Qassem Suleimani begged Putin to intervene
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
DodogamaRayBrst posted...
Is this an actual thing? I'm seeing zero on it on my national news site.

CNN is reporting on it

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/28/europe/syria-rebels-government-iran-analysis-intl/index.html
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LightSnake posted...
Yeah, Hezbollah losing so much of its army and entire command stucture doesn't feel coincidental to this

I hadn't considered that variable, but holy moly does it make sense when I think about it. Looks like Israel fucking around is going to ignite smoldering conflicts in the region.
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Xenogears15 posted...
I hadn't considered that variable, but holy moly does it make sense when I think about it. Looks like Israel fucking around is going to ignite smoldering conflicts in the region.

A bigger problem is this is a natural conclusion of Iran overreaching heavily. They decided to use their influence to sponsor armies of thieving butchers and now there's the capacity for a lot less organized violence. Iran has managed to piss off just about every faction not allied with them and Daddy Russia getting roundly humiliated in Ukraine has made things more precarious than they want to admit.

Hezbollah spent like a year blasting rockets at Israel on the notion they were invincible after 2006. That turned out to be a critical error in judgment and now the organization has been so crippled even Iran was just "good luck, fam."
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
Xenogears15 posted...
I hadn't considered that variable, but holy moly does it make sense when I think about it. Looks like Israel fucking around is going to ignite smoldering conflicts in the region.
Yeah, there's already a power vacuum in the region and it looks like everyone involved (at least in the Syrian civil war) is fighting again to get as much as they can out of it. The rebels (again likely with Turkish support) are fighting (and walking all over) the pro-Assad forces in the west and the Kurds and Turks are fighting in the north.

I don't see any of these groups marching on Damascus anytime soon so the regime is probably currently not under any threat of being toppled (unless these groups have sleeper cells in the south), but things are definitely heating up again so there will probably be lots of movement in northern Syria in the near future.
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Chev427BB posted...
Yeah, there's already a power vacuum in the region and it looks like everyone involved (at least in the Syrian civil war) is fighting again to get as much as they can out of it. The rebels (again likely with Turkish support) are fighting (and walking all over) the pro-Assad forces in the west and the Kurds and Turks are fighting in the north.

I don't see any of these groups marching on Damascus anytime soon so the regime is probably currently not under any threat of being toppled (unless these groups have sleeper cells in the south), but things are definitely heating up again.

Trump is also about to assume office and being anti-Iran is...pretty on point for him.
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
Chev427BB posted...
I think Trump supported the moderate rebels in the last major offensive. It would definitely be on brand for him.
Didn't he pull out all US support and pretty much left it up to Russia and Turkey to fuck over the people we had been working with on the ground?
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I was wrong about them supporting the rebels, but the US did launch a pretty big missile attack on Syria in 2017 in retaliation for a chemical attack. It wasn't directly related to the rebel movements around Aleppo though.
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Hexenherz posted...
Didn't he pull out all US support and pretty much left it up to Russia and Turkey to fuck over the people we had been working with on the ground?

yeah, he completely fucked the Kurds. Though he also blew up Irans favorite general
Ring the bells that still can ring/Forget your perfect offering/There is a crack in everything/That's how the light gets in."- RIP, Leonard Cohen
LightSnake posted...
Though he also blew up Irans favorite general


iran is still pissed off about that and tried exacting revenge at least once on trump but failed.
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https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1862205995436712309

The rebels have begun their attack on Aleppo. Also, Kurdish forces are building up in the north.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/28-november-21-major-sdf-reinforcements-are-arriving-at-manbij
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https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1862254358642995344

The Turkish militias fighting in Syria have joined the Rebel Alliance opposition forces in their offensive against the pro-Assad forces while simultaneously attacking the Kurds in the north, but we're supposed to handwave that now that they've joined the fight with Assad's forces.

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So Syrians have suffered this war for this long and even if Assad were to fall, he'd be replaced by somebody as bad or worse. Lovely.
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Current Events » Syrian rebels have started a surprise offensive near Aleppo
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