Is Harris's 2024 campaign better than Biden's 2020 campaign?

Seems that people are saying Harris's relative youth is reinvigorating the Democratic party, although I'm not sure to what extent that's just confirmation bias. Is Harris genuinely doing a better job of running a campaign so far compared to Biden at the same point four years ago?

I think there was more excitement over Harris's campaign for 2024 in the first two days than there ever had been excitement for Biden in the past five years

At least, that's what it has felt like to me.

Yeah I guess. She:

- Appears more.
- Picked a more electorally relevant running mate than he dd.
- Has been careful not to alienate any wing of the Democratic coalition.
- Presents herself as more than a status quo candidate, aiding enthusiasm.
- Is more aggressive towards the GOP and doesn't pretend its leadership is redeemable.
- Adapts much more easily to the political climate. Tons of people lost their health insurance during the covid pandemic layoffs and Biden was still touting the glory of employment-tied healthcare.
- Isn't making a bunch of dumbass gaffes or offensive comments like "you ain't black."

On the other hand Biden came off less scripted, actually had a written platform, was a lot more willing to just commit to a stance regardless of who liked it or not, and offered more realistic policy proposals overall. Not saying he was all bad, stubborn pragmatism has a place. Overall though I'd lean Harris.

No, I dont think so. Personal opinions aside, shes polling significantly worse than Biden was at this stage of the 2020 cycle (+3.2 national polling average versus Bidens +7.5) and the election forecasts show her having a considerably lower chance of winning (538 gives her a 55 out of 100 chance, whereas it gave Biden a 71 out of 100 chance at this stage, and Nate Silvers personal model has Trump winning 58 out of 100 times). And yeah, polling can be inaccurate, every model is biased in some way, etc. but the numbers are different enough that I think its pretty significant.

MrToothHasYou posted...

No, I dont think so. Personal opinions aside, shes polling significantly worse than Biden was at this stage of the 2020 cycle (+3.2 national polling average versus Bidens +7.5) and the election forecasts show her having a considerably lower chance of winning (538 gives her a 55 out of 100 chance, whereas it gave Biden a 71 out of 100 chance at this stage, and Nate Silvers personal model has Trump winning 58 out of 100 times). And yeah, polling can be inaccurate, every model is biased in some way, etc. but the numbers are different enough that I think its pretty significant.

Trump was polling horrendously in 2020 because of covid. Prior to the pandemic going into noticeable effect (job closures etc.) he was polling better against Biden than he currently is against Harris.

Diceheist posted...

Trump was polling horrendously in 2020 because of covid. Prior to the pandemic going into noticeable effect (job closures etc.) he was polling better against Biden than he currently is against Harris.

I hate how little the poor handling of covid is talked about. All the inflation we have now is a direct result of how covid was handled.

MrToothHasYou posted...

No, I dont think so. Personal opinions aside, shes polling significantly worse than Biden was at this stage of the 2020 cycle (+3.2 national polling average versus Bidens +7.5) and the election forecasts show her having a considerably lower chance of winning (538 gives her a 55 out of 100 chance, whereas it gave Biden a 71 out of 100 chance at this stage, and Nate Silvers personal model has Trump winning 58 out of 100 times). And yeah, polling can be inaccurate, every model is biased in some way, etc. but the numbers are different enough that I think its pretty significant.

Nate Silver's model programmed in a convention bounce for no reason, that never happened and has thrown off the model.

2020 was also full of polling errors across the board that aren't present now

A resounding yes. She has way more demographic appeal.

Squall28 posted...

I hate how little the poor handling of covid is talked about. All the inflation we have now is a direct result of how covid was handled.

It's been the GOP strategy for decades to fuck up the economy, and then leave office just in time for Democrats to take the blame for it

LightSnake posted...

Nate Silver's model programmed in a convention bounce for no reason, that never happened and has thrown off the model.

Out of curiosity, you phrased that like a convention bounce would hurt Harris, could you please elaborate on that because I don't quite understand.

Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...

Out of curiosity, you phrased that like a convention bounce would hurt Harris, could you please elaborate on that because I don't quite understand.

Silver's model is programmed to assume a convention bounce, and thus also programmed to assume the bounce will fade, IE: that the polling is weaker than it appears. So the model basically subtracts points from Harris as it assumes her current polling is inflated.

Diceheist posted...

Trump was polling horrendously in 2020 because of covid. Prior to the pandemic going into noticeable effect (job closures etc.) he was polling better against Biden than he currently is against Harris.

That is simply untrue. In late February/early March, before any of the major fallout from the pandemic or the BLM protests had started, Biden was already polling 4-5 points above Trump, which is higher than Harris is currently polling (or, frankly, has ever polled). Trump certainly lost ground as a result of the pandemic, dropping below 45% in mid March and never going back over that mark but he also hasnt recovered in this election cycle, either. Hes polling at around 43%, which is where he was this time last cycle.

See for yourself:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Now, none of this is to say shes running a bad campaign. Its just, by a relatively objective metric, not as strong as Bidens was in 2020.

2020 was a different animal.

The issue is that Trump's floor is solid and seemingly unshakeable. The biggest issue isn't persuading swing voters but winning soft support.

LightSnake posted...

Silver's model is programmed to assume a convention bounce, and thus also programmed to assume the bounce will fade, IE: that the polling is weaker than it appears. So the model basically subtracts points from Harris as it assumes her current polling is inflated.

That seems rather premature

As I recall polling for this cycle is also including more Trump voters that were not counted last time because they didn't get full voter data. People that basically said "fuck you I'm voting Trump" and hung up before they could get all the demographic info the models needed. Trying to correct for Trump overperforming polls previously. So the difference between Biden's lead and Harris' lead would make sense in that context.