K181 posted...
Texas, allegedly on the verge of going blue since 2008. /s
Republican margins have been shrinking in Texas for a long time now. Abbott won by 11 points in 2022, which was down from 13.3 points in 2018, which in turn was down from 20.4 points in 2014. Cornyn went from winning by 27.2 points in 2014 to only winning by 9.6 points in 2020. Cruz went from winning by 16 points in 2012 to only winning by 2.6 points in 2018. Abbott's margins SHRANK in 2022, which was an R+3 cycle, from 2018, which was a D+9 cycle. Every other incumbent Republican governor INCREASED their margins, including supposedly turning purple Georgia. Tarrant County, the state's third largest county, went blue in 2018 for the first time since 1964. If that's not a sign that the political tide in Texas is turning, I don't know what is.
Abbott's margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk by 3% every cycle since 2014. Here are some exit polls:
2014: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/
Suburbs went 62% for Abbott.
2018: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas
Suburbs went 59% for Abbott.
2022: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0
Suburbs went 56% for Abbott. Also worth noting that Abbott only won the rural areas by 66%, down from 73% in 2018.
Trump himself only won the state by 5.5 points, or 600k votes. That's the narrowest margin for a Republican presidential candidate since 1996.