Do you understand the Monty Hall problem?

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It's not at all complicated, especially if you consider 100 doors instead of three doors. If you pick a random door, and the host opens 98 empty ones, you would be an idiot if you stayed with the door you chose.

That said, there is a fundamental flaw in the problem. That flaw is the assumption that the game show host knows which door contains the prize. If he doesn't, and just gets lucky and opens all the empty doors, the odds are indeed 50/50.

Edit: looks like the guy right above me said exactly the same thing right before I did

People try to apply the Monty Hall problem to that one episode of Deal or No Deal where the lady stayed with her case and won $1M, but in reality that's actually a situation in which she correctly eliminated, by chance, all of the lower value cases without actually knowing it. In her situation, the odds of winning was indeed 50/50.
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