Bill Gates, Elon Musk and M Zuckerberg believe smartphones are nearing the end

Apple CEO Tim Cook disagrees but I think new emerging communication tech will make phones obsolete one day.

What will they be replaced with?
Sure tech is moving fast, but smartphones are still by the best of being small tech and keeping people connected.

Everyone still loves their smartphones and uses them regularly but I think we're at a point where there's no desire or feeling of necissity on the side of the consumer to upgrade annually or as frequently as the big telecom companies would like and for that reason they want to push the market in another direction that they can capitalize on.

Ogurisama posted...

What will they be replaced with?
Sure tech is moving fast, but smartphones are still by the best of being small tech and keeping people connected.

Pretty much this. Even recognizing that us not being able to conceive of a paradigm shift doesn't mean one isn't possible (see Ford's "faster horses" quote) and therefore not putting too much stock in the fact that we can't think of a replacement, all of the primary functions of smart phones (phone, text, camera, location, internet connectivity, and apps that capitalize on these features) are still very much in demand and will be for the foreseeable future. Any hypothetical replacement would need to fulfill that demand in addition to whatever new features it offered in order to actually become a replacement and render smartphones obsolete, except any device that offers all of those features is best described as a smart phone.

This feels a lot like EA et al's periodic insistence that single-player games are dead, despite there being no actual evidence of a reduction in demand for them. It's just billionaires with a vested interest in selling us the Next Big Thing trying to convince us that we're unhappy with the Current Big Thing to make us want whatever's coming next more. My money's on pushing some sort of AI personal assistant sort of deal that uses context clues to predict what smartphone feature it should offer you at any given moment.

Ogurisama posted...

Sure tech is moving fast, but smartphones are still by the best of being small tech and keeping people connected.

Practical phones stopped being small a long time ago.

I feel like it's more that the tech industry can't think of ways to keep innovating the smartphone to justify continually charging more for them. Like how TV's have effectively plateaued after 3D TV's didn't take off.

The "folding smartphones" being the next big thing hasn't managed to catch on as they've hoped.

The AI assistance boxes that all the media outlets were hyping up was just scam product.

That said Samsung and Apple keep charging more for minimal speed improvements at the top end of the market and they keep selling.

But, it's not like people have stopped using TVs either, it's just that TV prices keep going down rather than up because there has been no innovation in the market.

I kinda wish we didn't need smartphones anymore, honestly might be the worst invention of the 21st century.

Having billionaires say they will be obsolete is a monkey's paw curl though, I know that if they figure out how to replace smartphones it will definitely be something worse. Not to say at this point I'm all that worried about it. Elon Musk is basically full of nothing but horrible takes and nonsensical techbro predictions, and Mark Zuckerberg thought the metaverse would be where everyone wants to hang out

__starsnostars posted...

Everyone still loves their smartphones and uses them regularly but I think we're at a point where there's no desire or feeling of necissity on the side of the consumer to upgrade annually or as frequently as the big telecom companies would like and for that reason they want to push the market in another direction that they can capitalize on.

This is where Im at. I like my iPhone and I never upgraded every year, but the next time I upgrade Im going for the cheapest one thats similar to this just has the USB C so k can finally get rid of this goddamned lightning port.

I think it's less that they believe that, and more that they have alternative goals that require smart phones to be dead. So they're going to push the idea in the hopes of making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Like Zuckerberg desperately wants Meta and VR to be a thing. In his ideal world, people stop using smart phones because they'll always be "jacked in" to the Metaverse via digital contacts or smart glasses or headsets or whatever, and you'll talk, text, shop, and do everything else in his digital hellscape. But the only people who actually want that are the people who would profit from it, so odds are it never catches on.

Musk wants Neuralink - basically, you won't need a smart phone or headsets if you've got a chip in your brain that lets you jack directly into the Internet like it was the Matrix (which could in turn synergize with the Metaverse to double your misery). Of course, most sane and rational people are utterly fucking terrified of this as a concept, so odds are people are going to desperately cling to smart phones rather than go that route if they have any say in the matter whatsoever.

With Gates, I'm not sure what his motive is. He's got a lot of personal stake tied to environmental causes, so he might just be against smart phones because of the huge negative impact they can have on the environment (though ironically, they also have potential positives, if they help wean people away from society-as-car-culture). But I suspect if you dig deep enough into his portfolio of investments, you'll probably find some experimental technology or other than is intended as a smart phone replacement, or which would tend to minimize the impact of smart phones if it were successful (is Microsoft working on a Google Glass type device?).

__starsnostars posted...

Everyone still loves their smartphones and uses them regularly but I think we're at a point where there's no desire or feeling of necissity on the side of the consumer to upgrade annually or as frequently as the big telecom companies would like and for that reason they want to push the market in another direction that they can capitalize on.

It's why I'm wondering how long before they start telling us that they absolutely need 6G networks, and that everyone still using 4G needs to upgrade or die.



bachewychomp posted...

I kinda wish we didn't need smartphones anymore

Some of us still don't. But it's a case of being willing to accept that there will always be limitations on what you can and can't do without one.

I've personally never owned a smart phone (I barely own a cell phone at all - I've got a little burner I never use and only really keep for roadside emergencies, and I do all of my actual communication and business through a landline phone and the Internet via a laptop). And it's my fondest hope that I can manage to survive another couple of decades and then die before it becomes something that is utterly necessary.

I still pay bills by physical check. I don't use apps for anything. Almost anything vital or mandatory can still be done by other means, and the only things that you 100% require a smart phone to do are mostly things I have no interest in doing, or are cases where I'm willing to give up the convenience in favor of not having to have a smart phone.

I'm mostly just hoping we can keep limping along in what's left of the analog past before all you younger bastards get stuck with the cyberpunk future. Just like I'm hoping I can manage to keep my fossil fuel powered car and natural gas powered house going until I'm dead and it stops being my problem.

bachewychomp posted...

I kinda wish we didn't need smartphones anymore, honestly might be the worst invention of the 21st century.

Having billionaires say they will be obsolete is a monkey's paw curl though, I know that if they figure out how to replace smartphones it will definitely be something worse. Not to say at this point I'm all that worried about it. Elon Musk is basically full of nothing but horrible takes and nonsensical techbro predictions, and Mark Zuckerberg thought the metaverse would be where everyone wants to hang out

Generally you don't actually need one - there just ends up being some annoying things with businesses where they insist on you needing an app etc.

ParanoidObsessive posted...

He's got a lot of personal stake tied to environmental causes, so he might just be against smart phones because of the huge negative impact they can have on the environment

Bill gates doesn't care about the environment. These billionaires don't give a fuck about stuff like that. They only care if stuff that they attach themselves to lines their pockets

I don't think there's putting the genie back in the bottle anyway. The main thing I hate about smartphones is they've made me develop bad internet scrolling behaviors, but if I switched to a "dumbphone" I'd probably just end up pulling my smartphone back out of the drawer, or use a laptop or whatever. Hell I've pretty much already been down that path before. Every time I delete the distracting apps I either end up downloading them again or wasting just as much time at the computer instead. I just haven't gone fully over to a dumbphone because I needed an authenticator app for work, plus I like being able to have a decent camera and music player in my pocket.

I envy those who are able to exercise self-control, as that's really what it comes down to. Nonetheless, I still believe things can have individual solutions and be a systemic problem at the same time. It's not really a secret that all this is designed to be addictive

BUMPED2002 posted...

Apple CEO Tim Cook disagrees but I think new emerging communication tech will make phones obsolete one day.

I'll listen to the one actually making smartphones.

You can pretty accurately be correct most of the time by believing the opposite of what Elon Musk thinks.

Also the smartphone has been perfected and there's no reason to upgrade anymore, so that's why they want to move on from it.

Yellow posted...

Also the smartphone has been perfected and there's no reason to upgrade anymore, so that's why they want to move on from it.

I just wish they'd take the specs we're at now and miniaturize it again over time. I get it that screen size is also just a a selling point, but anything that would be better on a 7" screen instead of a 5" screen is probably on too small of a screen either way. Damn phones now destroy my pockets with how big they are

The current form factor of the smart phone may become obsolete, but just out of habit it will always be referred to as the phone, even if its eventually just a microscopic piece of circuitry implanted in the body.

Extreme_light posted...

I'll listen to the one actually making smartphones.

I wouldn't. He's got a vested interest in lying to you about how viable smart phones will be over the long term because he wants to sell you more smart phones.

It's like believing a car dealer telling you about the viability of electric cars.



OhhhJa posted...

Bill gates doesn't care about the environment. These billionaires don't give a fuck about stuff like that. They only care if stuff that they attach themselves to lines their pockets

They care when they can get their legacy to be "The Guy Who Saved the Environment".

It's the same reason why so many Robber Barons donated tons of money to charity or established foundations for the arts or education or other noble causes. Someone like Carnegie has his name attached to hospitals, libraries, concert halls, and foundations that support educational programming on PBS. Which makes you less likely to think about him as the guy who was involved with one of the bloodiest strikes in US history, or who made most of his money in the steel industry via incredibly underhanded means.

Gates has long since made his money. He doesn't really need more, and he doesn't intend to give more than a token amount to his kids (to "keep them humble"). Which means he can afford to blow tons and tons of cash on charities, and politic for tons of causes. Many of which allow him to hobnob with celebrities and politicians, essentially making fame and influence more appealing than mere money. But many of which also allow him to present himself as a philanthropist and forward thinker who did far more to help the world than all of the myriad ways he acted like an asshole to make all of his money.

Gates is a huge proponent of things like alternative energy and net-zero carbon initiatives. It doesn't really matter what his motives are. It's what shapes a lot of his current ideology.

They are on the way to becoming obsolete. The technology to replace them is getting good enough and cheap enough to become a threat, but while there may technically be better options I don't see it happening for a while.

First off very few people are going to buy 2 expensive communication devices, so whatever they replace smartphones with will still need to have a phone option for contacting businesses unless they also get businesses to adapt whatever they want to switch the phone with.

It can't be locked into a specific service.
I dont want to have 20 different apps to contact everyone I want to contact instead of just having a phone number.

Even with a phone function it needs to be something I can put on or take off discreetly and easily. Not all of us are in a position where we can wear expensive and breakable Ai glasses. I could see them trying a watch design as well, but that's another option not all of us can use. Always an exposed face, ready to get scratched or the band caught in something.

Something with projection capabilities might be cool. But I'm again looking at daily convenience. And slipping a phone in and out if my pocket is pretty hard to beat.

i look forward to some lawnmower man 2 type stuff in the future. seems like it would have a lot of action

Probably means getting rid of the phone/calling aspect of smartphones

I mean, when's the last time anyone called anyone?

ParanoidObsessive posted...

Like Zuckerberg desperately wants Meta and VR to be a thing. In his ideal world, people stop using smart phones because they'll always be "jacked in" to the Metaverse via digital contacts or smart glasses or headsets or whatever, and you'll talk, text, shop, and do everything else in his digital hellscape. But the only people who actually want that are the people who would profit from it, so odds are it never catches on.

I think you're the only one who truly understands that this is what these guys mean. The smartphone is ending probably with a decade or so because it will be integrated into your body directly

I assumed that's what they've been intending, I just think they are wrong that they'll be able to get people to buy in to something so invasive. We humans have been pretty naive about blindly accepting what technology our wealthy overlords will push on us, but I think eventually we have a limit. Of course I'm not surprised they will test that limit because they've been emboldened to keep pushing further and further with ordinary people

Even putting aside the invasiveness, Metaverse has been a pretty colossal failure for reasons that have nothing to do with tech limitations. The idea of LARPing everyday social interactions in VR just isn't actually all that great once the novelty wears off, and the value it does provide is mostly entertainment and not the utility role that smartphones fill. Advancements in tech aren't going to change the fact that non-tech bros just don't care enough about visiting their friends virtually to spend any money on doing so (at least, nothing beyond playing something like Animal Crossing, and even then the appeal is more people sharing what they've created while the actual hangout is just voice or video chat).

JixHedgehog posted...

Probably means getting rid of the phone/calling aspect of smartphones

I mean, when's the last time anyone called anyone?

On a fairly regular basis I call the people I actually like. My texting habits aren't always the best and with ADHD I am better off if I can stay on task with a phone call as opposed to a text conversation where I'm in the middle of doing other things. So basically I call my parents on occasion, my wife a decent amount, my daughter to come to dinner, etc...

Then there are still a lot of businesses in the trades that don't have good marketplaces set up so I have to actually call to place orders. That is annoying.

ParanoidObsessive posted...

I wouldn't. He's got a vested interest in lying to you about how viable smart phones will be over the long term because he wants to sell you more smart phones.

It's like believing a car dealer telling you about the viability of electric cars..

Your example is poor. Electric cars are the clear path for the next 10-20 years.

And, for that matter, most car companies were trying not to push electric cars until Tesla's success made it impossible for them to keep artificially suppressing the market and they had to jump on the bandwagon or risk getting left behind.

Guess I'll see. My use case, driving me to older budget models and hanging on to each for a few years until the apps I may want to use no longer support my Android version, places me outside the market anyway. Not unlike my gaming, actually.

It'll be glasses and AR, for sure. Instead of scrolling on their phones it'll use eye tracking/ people waving their hands around like wizards.

supergamer19 posted...

It'll be glasses and AR, for sure. Instead of scrolling on their phones it'll use eye tracking/ people waving their hands around like wizards.

If we can get a release that doesn't cost $3000, then sure, it's the new paradigm shift. Otherwise no one is going to buy it.

Not for me, thanks. One arm unresponsive, one eye blind. Last thing I need is a control scheme that assumes that's not so.

The world went to hell when everybody and their mother had the internet and a camera in their pocket.